Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 4.017061 4.435301 4.933495 5.589097 6.461716 7.641910 9.493556
2025-01-19 3.438258 3.923328 4.548468 5.462845 6.880418 9.297683 15.088119
2025-01-26 3.201789 3.746838 4.494895 5.695554 7.867644 12.859895 46.995165
2025-02-02 3.076680 3.680064 4.556404 6.097105 9.420443 21.811916 NaN
2025-02-09 2.904766 3.516489 4.433831 6.138061 10.291111 36.921549 NaN
2025-02-16 2.775809 3.395786 4.352308 6.223177 11.402585 144.580477 NaN
2025-02-23 2.600878 3.188621 4.100761 5.904495 11.046114 530.251461 NaN
2025-03-02 2.508186 3.096595 4.027618 5.937870 11.982870 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 2.419430 3.002577 3.938765 5.915173 12.747022 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.318481 2.882490 3.792558 5.733404 12.669112 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.278793 2.854680 3.804085 5.919959 14.773107 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.187337 2.739503 3.649224 5.673966 14.102579 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 2.091438 2.616125 3.477500 5.380469 13.082317 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 2.022601 2.533121 3.374173 5.245819 13.032917 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 2.002294 2.525916 3.406705 5.455776 15.725992 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.998430 2.544480 3.488160 5.820465 21.978571 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.960189 2.504308 3.454175 5.857472 25.390254 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.928403 2.473084 3.434762 5.934477 31.308223 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.865267 2.387009 3.302334 5.645508 26.491952 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.834932 2.354745 3.274309 5.675847 31.163389 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.801966 2.316663 3.232171 5.655216 35.185455 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.758287 2.259044 3.148027 5.489700 32.592041 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.745797 2.253425 3.167302 5.659567 51.411338 NaN NaN